有多少人会买特斯拉的Model 3？请看最专业的分析

伴随着轰轰烈烈的宣传和必将成为主流的看好声，特斯拉最近高调推出了其最新款的Model 3轿车。这款新车的续航里程为350多公里，3.5万美元的起售价也是较为实惠的，基本与凯利蓝皮书（Kelley Blue Book）给出的目前市场上34,721美元的新车销售均价保持一致。但现在就说Model 3是一款“主流”轿车，似乎有一点“钦定了”的意思，毕竟不管怎么说它都是一台电动轿车。实际上，Model 3唯一“主流”的，也就只有它的价格了。

我在2014年曾为国美国国家科学院的国家研究委员会撰写过一篇名叫《克服插电式电动汽车的部署壁垒》的报告。在这份研究中，我们将布赖斯·莱恩和尼尔·格罗斯1943年发明的“创新曲线”的概念引入了对电动汽车采用率的研究。根据莱恩和格罗斯的理论，创新者（约占社会总人口的2.5%）是最乐于承担采用创新产品的风险的，因为哪怕他们失败了，他们手中的资源也耗得起不完善的新技术造成的损失。比如说2008年前后第一批购买特斯拉Roadster跑车的人，以及第一批购买Models和Model X的人。当年的特斯拉因为欧翼式车门的问题可是闹出过不少波折的。

在创新曲线上排在第二位的是“早期采用者”，约占社会总人口的13.5%。他们对所采用的技术更加挑剔，同时他们也是英特尔这种科技公司的新技术的目标用户，只要企业一再保证新技术的可靠性，他们也是乐于尝试的。他们对价格会更敏感一些，不过仍有一定的风险容忍度。在当今社会，“早期采用者”也被称为“影响者”。目前的Model S车主和已经交了Model 3定金的人，都可以算作创新技术的“早期采用者”。

下一组是“早期多数使用者”，约占总人口的34%。这部分人需要被说服才会采用新技术。不过只要他们发现新技术能够造福他们的生活，他们还是乐于采用的。这些人也是伊隆·马斯克和特斯拉最需要的客户群。

考虑到在美国的购车群体中，每年购买电动汽车者只有1%左右，可以说电动汽车技术本身仍然可以归为“创新产品”一类。混动汽车投放市场已有20年之久，可是据汽车网站MotorIntelligence报道，2016年，混动汽车占新车销售的份额仍然只有少得可怜的2.2%，较2013年的3.3%还有所下降。另据IHS Markit报道，目前混动和电动汽车的销量加起来，只占了全球新车销量的3%左右。混动汽车花了20年时间，才勉强越过了“创新者”那2.5%。每个月有超过1600万名消费者到凯利蓝皮书上搜索新车信息，然而其中只有3%的人研究过豪华电动汽车，考虑过混动车的人更是只有2%。

除了大家对购买电动汽车普遍兴致不高，特斯拉要想吸引“早期多数使用者”的关注，还面临着其他一些挑战。首先是Model 3的尺寸和体型，Model 3大致可以归入紧凑豪华车市场，大概就是宝马3系和奥迪A4这一级别。Model 3是一款四门家轿，并不是一款掀背车。然而随着消费者对功能性的要求越来越高，目前销量最火的却是SUV。Model 3虽然也有前后储物厢，但它的载货能力和目前市场上最火的紧凑型SUV相比，显然还是差了一大截。

另一个壁垒则是特斯拉的抵税配额快用完了。美国从2009年开始，给予了汽车厂商生产的前20万辆汽车每辆7,500美元的税收抵免政策。如果考虑到Model S和Model X的销量，再加上少量的Roadster，特斯拉的配额差不多已经用了一半多了。据估算，到2018年末，消费者在购买特斯拉时就将无法享受到税收优惠，而这时正是特斯拉需要冲销量、在创新曲线上再拱一拱的时候。虽然美国有些州针对电动汽车颁布了一些利好政策，然而同时这些州也留了一些后手，有的要求收入达到一定水平者不得享受税收优惠，还有的对电动汽车车主征收了更高的手续费，相当于变相征收了燃油税。这些都有可能对电动汽车的采用率造成影响，哪怕电动汽车的电池成本越来越低、路上的充电站越来越多了。

当然，汽车界也没有光看特斯拉的热闹。印度、英国、法国和中国等国正在呼吁在2030年或2040年前将汽车全面电动化。在这种大背景下，无论是平价品牌还是豪华品牌，在2020年前都会推出至少一款电动车型，不管消费者到底想不想买。届时，大多数电动汽车都会达到300英里以上的续航里程，同时建成较为完善的经销商和维保服务网络。在美国，通用汽车和日产公司可能到2018年左右就会用完减税配额，不过随着各大厂商与特斯拉在电动车市场的竞争日益激烈，其他一些汽车公司也很可能会争取到联邦和各州的更多税收优惠。

马斯克给特斯拉的Model 3画出了一条极富野心的产能曲线，很多人对此有所担心也是正常的，一家汽车工厂的大规模量产也不是件容易的事。同时很多人对特斯拉的充电桩网络、特许经营中面临的法律问题和车辆的维保问题也表示担心。不过这些问题有不少还在马斯克的掌控之内。而消费者是否相信电动汽车（尤其是特斯拉）比传统汽车更适合他们的生活，这是马斯克目前掌控不了的，也是特斯拉走向主流所要面对的真正的挑战。（BT365的网址是多少）

本文作者Rebecca Lindland是凯利蓝皮书的一名高级分析师。

译者：贾政景

With much fanfare and talk of going mainstream, Tesla recently unveiled its latest baby, the Model 3, with a base range of 220 miles and an accessible starting price of $35,000. The Model 3 sedan’s price is right in line with today’s average transaction price of $34,721 for a new car, according to my employer, Kelley Blue Book. But calling the Model 3 mainstream is a bit of a misnomer, given that the vehicle is, regardless of price, electric. In fact, the only thing mainstream about the Model 3 is the price.

As part of my work on the 2014 report, “Overcoming Barriers to Deployment of Plug-In Electric Vehicles,” for the National Research Council at the National Academies, we applied the innovation curve, as first created by Bryce Ryan and Neal Gross in 1943, to electric vehicle adoption. According to Ryan and Gross, innovators (2.5% of the population) are willing to take risks even if they fail, since they have the resources to withstand an imperfect technology; think Tesla Roadster buyers circa 2008 and first-in-line Model S owners, as well as Model X buyers, due to the falcon-wing doors.

Next on the curve are early adopters (13.5%), who are a bit choosier about the technology they adopt, and are seen as the go-to resource for intel on new tech, providing reassurances about its viability. They are more price sensitive, but still risk tolerant. In today’s world, early adopters are also known as influencers; I would argue these are current Model S owners and Model 3 deposit holders and soon-to-be buyers.

The next set is the early majority (34%). Early majority mindsets need convincing—they’re willing to embrace technology, as long as they understand how it fits into their lives. These are the people Elon Musk and Tesla needs most.

Given that only about 1% of all new car buyers purchase an electric vehicle every year in the U.S., the technology itself is still very much in the innovator class. Even hybrids, in the market for nearly 20 years now, accounted for just 2.2% of new car sales in 2016, down from a high of 3.3% in 2013, according to MotorIntelligence. In fact, IHS Markit reports that hybrid and electric vehicles combined for just 3% of new car sales globally, so it’s taken 20 years for hybrids to move beyond the “innovator” 2.5%. Over 16 million unique shoppers come to Kelley Blue Book every month to research cars. Only about 3% research luxury electric cars and only about 2% research hybrid vehicles.

Tesla faces other challenges to reaching the early majority in addition to the general disinterest in purchasing electric vehicles. One of those is the Model 3’s size and body style, which falls into the compact luxury sedan category, similar to the BMW 3-Series or Audi A4. The Model 3 is a four-door sedan, not even a hatch, in a world where SUV sales are booming as consumers demand more utility from their rides. While the Model 3 does have a front and rear trunk, it doesn’t have anywhere near the cargo capacity of a compact SUV so popular in today’s market.

Another barrier is the $7,500 federal tax credit currently available for buyers of the first 200,000 units a manufacturer sells in the U.S., which started in 2009. Sales of the Model S and Model X, with a few Roadsters thrown in, mopped up more than half of Tesla’s 200,000 unit allotment. By some estimates, Tesla shoppers will no longer be eligible for the tax credit starting in mid to late 2018, just when it needs some financial risk mitigation to move through the innovation curve. While some states are offering incentives, a new trend is for those states to not only apply a salary cap to eligibility for a tax credit, but impose fees on electric vehicle owners to make up for not paying taxes on fuel. This could further stifle adoption, even in the face of decreasing battery costs and increasing availability of charging stations.

The rest of the automotive world is not standing still either. In response to increasingly discordant regulations calling for the complete ban of internal combustion engine vehicles by India, U.K., France, and China by a seemingly arbitrary 2030 or 2040 deadline, nearly every luxury and non-luxury brand will have an electric vehicle in its stable by 2020, whether consumers want them or not. Most if not all will have a 300-plus mile range, along with a well-established dealer body for sales and services. GM and Nissan will probably lose their tax credit sometime around 2018, but many other companies will be able to sweeten the pot with state and federal credits, providing additional competition to Tesla just as the current backlog is fulfilled.

There’s a lot of well-justified angst over the highly aggressive production curve Musk outlined for Tesla for the Model 3, and ramping up a vehicle plant is no small feat. There’s also a lot of skepticism about its charging network, dealer franchise laws, and servicing the vehicles. But many—if not all—of these issues fall within the circle of Musk’s control. What falls outside that realm is the consumer’s willingness to accept the notion that an electric vehicle—and a Tesla in particular—fits into their lives better than an internal combustion engine does. That’s the real challenge to Tesla going mainstream.

Rebecca Lindland is an executive analyst at Kelley Blue Book.