中国等新兴市场未出现资本危机

????今年夏末几大新兴市场都遭遇了股市暴跌。8月份，MSCI新兴市场基准指数重挫9%，这让人们不光担心股票上的损失，更担心资本外流伤及各个新兴经济体的根本。

????今年夏初，《金融时报》和《华尔街日报》双双发表文章，着重描述了这种顾虑，原因是今年第一季度15个最大新兴经济体的资本外流规模超过了2009年同期，也就是全球金融危机期间的水平。热钱蜂拥而去会让一个国家的金融体系变得不稳定，还会给该国货币带来沉重打击，有时甚至会引发全面危机（想一想1998年的俄罗斯）。

????目前的情况真是这样吗？

????今年确实有大量资金流出新兴市场。资产管理公司NN Investment Partners的数据显示，今年上半年新兴市场的资本外流规模超过4000亿美元。不过，其中的要点在于，很大一部分资金外流都发生在一个国家，那就是中国。

????研究机构Emerging Advisors Group追踪着39个新兴市场的数据。它发现，除中国外，其他新兴市场的资本外流很少，和2008-09年出现金融危机，2013年美联储压缩资产购买规模，2014年底油价暴跌以及美元走强时的外流水平根本无法相提并论。

????该机构总裁乔纳森?安德森指出，8月份股市重挫，世界各地的投资者从新兴市场抽离了数十亿美元资金，但即便如此，新兴市场也没有发生危机的迹象。安德森是最受推崇的新兴市场观察人士之一，曾在瑞银担任全球新兴市场经济学家。他在最近接受采访时说：“观察一下当地储户和境内居民的行为就会发现，并没有发现达到危机级别的大批资金外逃。但中国的资本外流是个问题。”

????8月中旬，中国央行下调人民币兑美元汇率引起外界关注。评论人士担心，人民币贬值会造成中国国内资金外逃。其中一些人预计，8月份中国的外汇储备将减少2000亿美元，按这样的速度计算，中国的外储将在短短一年多时间里流失殆尽。

????本周一，实际数据表明唱衰者过于危言耸听。中国央行公布，8月份中国外储减少了900亿美元，虽远高于7月份的750亿美元，但鉴于中国仍有3.6万亿美元外储，这样的流失规模并无大碍。

????事实表明，热钱并未逃离中国，富裕的中国精英阶层也没有携款逃往澳大利亚。据安德森介绍，反而是许多国内的人在远离人民币。最近两年美元快速升值，人民币汇率近期则下调并且不断滑落，这意味着中国的生意人和精英人士会选择更多地持有美元。中国外储减少的原因是央行将其用于支撑人民币汇率，但中国商业银行海外资产的增长产生了相反效果，而且这些海外资产并未计入中国的外汇储备。安德森说：“现在的局面真的不是资金逃离中国，而是人们在权衡之后开始远离人民币。”

????对于中国央行宣布下调人民币汇率，独立经济研究机构凯投宏观（Capital Economics）的关注中国市场的经济学家朱利安?埃文斯-普里查德的看法如下：

????人民币/美元汇率将出现历史最大单月跌幅，但并没有出现许多人说的资本大逃亡……我要重申的是，资本外流并非资本外逃。很大一部分资本外流只是源于中国的公司和银行持有了更多的外币存款，或者其境内外外币债务的下降。

????如果相关数据不再恶化，大家就不要相信中国或其他新兴市场出现了恐慌。那里的资本并未夺门而出。

????安德森总结说：“基本情况就是，人们在观察全球汇率市场的基本面，在操作中做了一点方向调整”，也就是说，人们抛售人民币是为买进升值的美元。安德森指出：“这就是为什么我要强调，目前的局势可能只是一种周期性现象，而非今后五年的重大结构性问题。”（BT365的网址是多少）

????译者：Charlie

????校对：詹妮

????The end-of-summer meltdown in emerging markets, when the MSCI stock benchmark collapsed by 9% in August, created a bigger fear than just stock losses—chiefly that emerging countries are experiencing crippling capital outflows.

????Earlier this summer a pair of articles in the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal highlighted the fears after the fifteen largest emerging economies recorded larger capital outflows in the first quarter this year than they had during the same period of the financial crisis in 2009. Hot money rushing out of a country destabilizes a country’s financial system and plays havoc on its currency— sometimes leading to full-blown crises. (See Russia 1998.)

????Is that what’s really happening?

????Emerging markets have in fact experienced massive outflows this year—more than $400 billion in the first half of 2015, according to NN Investment Partners. However, and this is the key point in the data, much of that has originated from a single source: China.

????Another researcher, Emerging Advisors Group, looked at 39 emerging markets it follows, minus China, and found capital outflows to be minimal—certainly nothing compared to crisis times of 2008-09, the Fed tapering in 2013, or the collapse of oil and the rise of the U.S. dollar in late 2014.

????Even after the August stock collapse, when global investors yanked billions out of the countries, a crisis didn’t appear in store for emerging countries, says Emerging Advisors president Jonathan Anderson, one of the most respected EM watchers and formerly global emerging markets economist at UBS. “If you look at the behavior of local depositors, residents on shore, what we don’t see is massive crisis level flight,” he said in a recent interview. “But there is a China outflows problem.”

????Attention shifted to China in mid-August after the country’s central bank devalued the yuan’s value to the dollar, which worried pundits that Chinese money would flee the country as the currency fell. Some commenters were predicting China’s foreign exchange reserves to fall by $200 billion in the month—a rate that would deplete its foreign reserves in just over a year.

????On Monday, evidence arrived that showed thedoomsayers were far too alarmist. China’s central bank said in August, reserves fell by $90 billion, which while up substantially from $75 billion in July, was not crippling, considering that China still has $3.6 trillion worth.

????It turns out hot money isn’t escaping China, nor are rich officials and elite fleeing with cash for Australia. Instead, according to Emerging Advisors’ Anderson, many inside the country are fleeing China’s currency. The U.S. dollar’s rapid rise over the past two years, compared to the recently devalued and falling renminbi (RMB), means Chinese businesses and elite are opting to hold more dollars. China’s central bank foreign reserves are declining because it is spending dollars to prop up the renminbi, but there’s an offsetting increase of foreign assets in China’s commercial banks, which aren’t counted in the foreign reserves figure. “It’s not really a story about money rushing out of China—it’s a story about getting out of the renminbi at the margin,” he says.

????Here’s Capital Economics’ Julian Evans-Pritchard on China’s central bank’s announcement:

????This would be the largest one-month fall in dollar terms on record but not the rout many were talking about. … It’s also worth reiterating that capital outflows are not the same as capital flight. Much of the “outflows” simply represent increased holdings of foreign currency deposits by Chinese firms and banks, or reductions in their foreign currency debts both at home and abroad.

????If the numbers don’t worsen, don’t fall for the panic in China or other emerging markets. Capital isn’t rushing out the door.

????Again, Anderson: “Basically, it’s people looking at global currency fundamentals and taking a bit the other direction,” he says, meaning that people are trading in some yuan for a rising U.S dollar. “Which is why, I stress, this is likely to be cyclical phenomenon rather a massive structural problem in the next five years.”